Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Quit dreaming, Yankee fans


Apparently, all it takes is one innocent comment from J.P. Ricciardi to make an entire legion of Yankee fans absolutely lose their minds.

The Blue Jays general manager set off a media firestorm yesterday, when he insinuated that Roy Halladay, an early-season Cy Young candidate and arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball, could be had for the right price.

As is the case anytime a superstar player is involved, all eyes immediately turned to the Yankees. FOX's Ken Rosenthal mentioned the Bombers first on a list of potential Halladay suitors, saying that the Jays could be intrigued by some highly-touted prospects currently in the lower tiers of the Yanks' minor league system. Meanwhile, YES Network blogger Glen Giangrande wrote in a post entitled "Halladay: A Natural Fit for Pinstripes" that the Yankees should somehow go and get the stud righty without giving up Phil Hughes. Another blogger suggested that Halladay's friendship with former teammate A.J. Burnett might cause him to push for a trade to the Bronx. Yankee fans, of course, ate all of this up, taking to sports talk radio and message boards with dreams of watching a formidable starting rotation led by Halladay and CC Sabathia.

Let's digest this for a second: The Blue Jays are supposed to trade a legitimate ace who won't become a free agent until after the 2010 season -- within their division, mind you -- for a package headlined by some low-minors prospects they hope will pan out -- leaving a 23-year-old pitcher who is already in the majors out of the deal, of course -- all because Halladay apparently has some unsubstantiated desire to be reunited with a former teammate. Dream on, Yankee fans. Believing any of this talk reflects poorly on us as baseball fans, it reeks of big-market arrogance, and really, it's just plain stupid.

First off, recent history says aces rarely get traded within the same league, let alone the same division. Look at the top five pitchers traded in the 2008 calendar year: Johan Santana, Erik Bedard, CC Sabathia, Rich Harden, and Joe Blanton. Bedard was the only one to stay in the American League, but even still, Baltimore made sure it sent the current Seattle Mariner as far away as possible. Look at all the top-flight pitching Billy Beane has packaged out of Oakland in the last five years: Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Dan Haren, Harden, and Blanton. Not a single one of them stayed in the American League. Look at Florida, who over the years had no problem trading big bats -- Mike Piazza, Carlos Delgado, Paul Lo Duca -- to the division-rival Mets. Yet even they shipped Boston's Josh Beckett out of the NL East back in 2005.

But for argument's sake, let's say the Yankees did want to make a run at Halladay. After all, the Jays and Yanks did pull off an intra-division blockbuster a little over 10 years ago, when Roger Clemens was dealt to the Bronx prior to the 1999 season. Keep in mind what the Yankees gave up in that deal, however: David Wells, coming off an 18-4 season in which he finished third in the Cy Young voting; lefty-specialist Graeme Lloyd; and speedy second baseman Homer Bush. That's three major leaguers, all contributors to a historic 1998 championship winning squad, for the 35-year-old Clemens.

There's no doubt the price would be just as steep for Halladay, who is three years younger than Clemens was at the time of his trade to the Yankees. At the minimum, every young piece on the Yanks' major league roster -- Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, Alfredo Aceves, Phil Coke, David Robertson, Joba Chamberlain, and yes, even Phil Hughes -- would have to be in play. Top prospects in AA and AAA, most notably Austin Jackson and Jesus Montero, would also have to be in the conversation. What incentive do the Blue Jays have to trade a stud of Halladay's caliber to a team they'll see 19 times a year without pillaging the Yankees of their top young talent? Absolutely none.

That's actually what makes a potential Halladay trade so unattractive from the Yankees' perspective. Despite essentially spotting Boston an eight-game lead in the AL East, the Yanks trail the Sox by only one heading into tonight's action. A primary reason is that unlike last year -- when Hughes and Ian Kennedy combined to go 0-8, Cabrera earned a demotion to the minors, and Cano hit a career-low .271 -- the young guys are contributing in a big way this year. Hughes has been dominant in a relief role (16 strikeouts, six hits in 14.2 innings), teaming with Coke, Robertson, and Aceves to stabilize a once-shaky Yankee bullpen. Cabrera has already matched a career high with eight home runs, Cano is back above .300, and Gardner has given a team typically characterized by its plodding veterans an element of speed it hasn't had in recent memory. Why tinker with any of that at this point?

Certainly, there is no team that wouldn't want the services of Roy Halladay. But Yankee fans should expect that he'll just be given away on a silver platter to a division rival. The Yanks would undoubtedly have to give up a ton to get him, including a lot of important pieces on a team that's 15 games over .500, and ultimately, that's just too high a price to pay.

1 comment:

Ross Marrinson said...

You are such a great writer, Sapna. Loved the post. Keep em' coming!