Critical stretch will determine Yanks' fate

So, it turns out it may have been a tad premature to declare the Yankees dead back on July 4. Fresh off a sweep of the Oakland A's this afternoon, the Bombers are well within striking distance of a playoff spot: 4.5 back of Tampa Bay in the East, 3 back of Boston in the Wild Card.

But right as they begin to inch closer in each race, the Yankees are about to encounter their toughest challenge of the season. When they kick off a three-game set against the 55-43 Minnesota Twins tomorrow, the Yanks will also be starting a stretch of 23 games in 24 days that could very well make or break their season. From now till August 14, the only team with a losing record on the Bombers' schedule is Baltimore, who, at 47-50, isn't exactly tanking it. Along the way, the Yanks will be making stops in Boston, Texas, Los Angeles, and Minnesota, whose combined home winning percentage is .635.

The next stop after the Twins series is Fenway Park, where New York will face a Red Sox team that is 36-11 at home and, in all likelihood, will have David Ortiz back in its lineup. After that, it doesn't get any easier. Beginning on July 31, the Yanks will play 7 of their next 11 games against the West-leading Angels, who have lost just one of their last six series against New York. From there, it's on to the Twin Cities for another three-game series against Minnesota, with the Wild Card potentially hanging in the balance.

Are there reasons to feel good about the Yankees right now? Sure. You can no longer attribute Mike Mussina's success to a simple hot streak, as he's allowed 3 runs or fewer in 14 of his last 16 starts. It's fully reasonable to expect that he, Andy Pettitte, and Joba Chamberlain can serve as a very formidable 1-2-3 atop the Yankee rotation for the remainder of the season.

The bullpen also continues to be one of the team's strengths. The last time the Yankees lost a game in which their starter left with a lead was back on May 27, when Ian Kennedy was still in the rotation. Even Kyle Farnsworth -- no hits allowed since June 27 -- is getting his act together.

Still, there are reasons for pessimism. Opting to stand pat as C.C. Sabathia, Rich Harden, and Joe Blanton were all traded, the Yankees enter this critical stretch with Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson as their No. 4 and 5 starters. Hardly awe-inspiring.

They also haven't made a whole lot of progress towards solving their season-long offensive woes. In 15 July games, the Yankees have scored fewer than 3 runs an astounding 8 times. Their .254 batting average with runners in scoring position ranks 21st in the league, and that number doesn't figure to improve anytime soon now that one of their clutchest hitters, Hideki Matsui, is apparently lost for the season. Jorge Posada's defense has become so bad that Jose Molina (.219/.260/.302) has been forced into the everyday lineup. And minus Johnny Damon, the outfield has literally been punchless, batting just .226 in 11 games without him. Is the offense really going to turn it around against the likes of Josh Beckett and John Lackey?

Another reason to be nervous: unlike the Yankees, the competition won't exactly be sweating it out over the next 24 days. During this brutal stretch for the Bombers, the Red Sox have series against Seattle, Oakland, and Kansas City. The schedule's even easier on the Rays, who get to play Oakland, Kansas City, Toronto, Cleveland, and Seattle in the coming month.

Nonetheless, we've been promised another exciting summer in the Bronx. Despite their reticence so far, the Yanks should be major players for whoever's left on the trade market until July 31. We may get to see some of their intriguing arms at Triple A get a chance to fill holes in the rotation. Most importantly, the Yanks will show us how they stack up against the A.L.'s best teams and let us know once and for all who they are in '08: contender or pretender?